Michael D. Bauer

Professor of Economics

Universität Hamburg

Welcome to my website! I am a Professor of Economics at Universität Hamburg, and a research fellow at CEPR, CESifo, and the IMFS. Previously, I was a central bank economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

My research focuses on the role of financial markets for the macroeconomy, monetary policy, and climate change. I am particularly interested in understanding the effects of monetary policy on the yield curve and asset prices—including monetary policy surprises, forward guidance, monetary policy communication, quantitative easing, monetary policy uncertainty, and risks to the economic outlook. More recently I’ve been working on social discount rates, the social cost of carbon and climate finance.

CV 🔹 Uni Hamburg Website 🔹 Google Scholar 🔹 RePeC 🔹 SSRN

Interests

Monetary Economics
Financial Economics
Climate Finance
Time Series Econometrics

Education

Ph.D. in Economics, 2010

University of California, San Diego
M.A. in Quant. Economics and Finance, 2005

University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
B.A. in Economics, 2003

University of St. Gallen, Switzerland

Current Work

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
with Eric Swanson. Paper prepared for 2022 NBER Macro Annual Conference.

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
with Eric Swanson. Revise-and-resubmit at American Economic Review.

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs
with Mikhail Chernov. Revise-and-resubmit at Journal of Finance.

Perceptions about Monetary Policy
with Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam.

The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Financial Markets
with Ben Bernanke and Eric Milstein.
Paper prepared for the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Climate Policy Curves
with Martin Hänsel, Moritz Drupp, Gernot Wagner and Glenn Rudebusch.

The Pricing of Climate Risks in Bond and Stock Markets
with Daniel Huber and Ole Wilms.

Featured Publications

Michael D. Bauer, Aeimit Lakdawala, Philippe Mueller (2021). Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty. Economic Journal.

EJ Preprint PDF FRBSF Working Paper Code and Data Daily uncertainty measure

Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch (2021). The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market. Review of Economics and Statistics.

REStat Preprint FRBSF Working Paper Online Appendix Code & Data r* estimates SDRs

Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch (2020). Interest Rates Under Falling Stars. American Economic Review.

Article Working Paper Online Appendix Code & Data

Michael D. Bauer, James D. Hamilton (2017). Robust Bond Risk Premia. Review of Financial Studies.

Article Working Paper Code & Data

Seminars

UHH Seminar “Quantitative Economics”

The seminar “Quantitative Economics” is a weekly research seminar at Universität Hamburg. The focus is on empirical and quantitative research in macroeconomics, finance and international economics. Currently, during the summer semester 2022, we are having both in-person (hybrid) and digital presentations.
More information here.

Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics

The Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics is an online seminar series open to everyone interested in research on the economics of climate change.
More information here.