Michael D. Bauer

Professor of Economics

Universität Hamburg

Welcome to my website! I am a Professor of Economics at Universität Hamburg, and a research fellow at CEPR, CESifo, and the IMFS. I am currently on leave from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

My research focuses on the role of financial markets for the macroeconomy, monetary policy, and climate change. I am particularly interested in understanding the effects of monetary policy on the yield curve and asset prices—including monetary policy surprises, forward guidance, monetary policy communication, quantitative easing, monetary policy uncertainty, and risks to the economic outlook. More recently I’ve been working on social discount rates, the social cost of carbon and climate finance.

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Interests

Monetary Economics
Financial Economics
Climate Finance
Time Series Econometrics

Education

Ph.D. in Economics, 2010

University of California, San Diego
M.A. in Quant. Economics and Finance, 2005

University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
B.A. in Economics, 2003

University of St. Gallen, Switzerland

Current Work

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
with Eric Swanson, March 2022, prepared for 2022 NBER Macro Annual Conference.

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
with Eric Swanson, August 2022, conditionally accepted American Economic Review.

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs
with Mikhail Chernov, September 2022, revise-and-resubmit Journal of Finance.

Perceptions about Monetary Policy
with Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam, September 2022.

Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and the Macroeconomy
with Ben Bernanke and Eric Milstein, July 2022, prepared for the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Climate Policy Curves: Linking Policy Choices to Climate Outcomes
with Martin Hänsel, Moritz Drupp, Gernot Wagner and Glenn Rudebusch, November 2022, working paper.

Where is the Carbon Premium? Global Performance of Green and Brown Stocks
with Daniel Huber, Glenn Rudebusch, and Ole Wilms.

Identifying Green Stocks using Climate Policy Announcements
with Eric Offner and Glenn Rudebusch.

Featured Publications

Michael D. Bauer, Aeimit Lakdawala, Philippe Mueller (2022). Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty. Economic Journal.

Cite Article PDF FRBSF Working Paper Code and Data Daily uncertainty measure

Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch (2021). The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market. Review of Economics and Statistics.

Cite Preprint FRBSF Working Paper Online Appendix Code & Data r* estimates SDRs

Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch (2020). Interest Rates Under Falling Stars. American Economic Review.

Cite Article Working Paper Online Appendix Code & Data

Michael D. Bauer, James D. Hamilton (2017). Robust Bond Risk Premia. Review of Financial Studies.

Cite Article Working Paper Code & Data

Seminars

UHH Seminar “Quantitative Economics”

The seminar “Quantitative Economics” is a weekly research seminar at Universität Hamburg. The focus is on empirical and quantitative research in macroeconomics, finance and international economics. Currently, during the summer semester 2022, we are having both in-person (hybrid) and digital presentations.
More information here.

Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics

The Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics is an online seminar series open to everyone interested in research on the economics of climate change.
More information here.