Other Publications

Articles (not peer-reviewed)

US benefit-cost analysis requires revision, with Howard, Sarinsky, Cecot, Cropper, Drupp, Freeman, Gillingham, Gollier, Groom, Li, Livermore, Newell, Pizer, Prest, Rudebusch, Sterner and Wagner, Science, Letter, Vol. 380, No. 6647, May 25, 2023.

Blog Posts

Did the Yield Curve Flip? Will the Economy Dip?, with Thomas Mertens, SF Fed Blog, February 27, 2019.

The spanning hypothesis and risk premia in long-term bonds, with James Hamilton, VoxEU, July 7, 2017.

SF Fed Economic Letters

Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions, with Zoë Arnaut, March 4, 2024.

Current Recession Risk According to the Yield Curve, with Thomas Mertens, May 9, 2022.

Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall, with Glenn Rudebusch, October 20, 2021.

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions, with Thomas Mertens, August 27, 2018.

Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve, with Thomas Mertens, March 5, 2018.

A New Conundrum in the Bond Market, November 20, 2017.

Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends, July 31, 2017.

Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?, with Glenn Rudebusch, December 5, 2016.

Do Macro Variables Help Forecast Interest Rates?, with James Hamilton, June 27, 2016.

Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?, with Erin McCarthy, September 21, 2015. (Addendum with technical details)

Optimal Policy and Market-Based Expectations, with Glenn Rudebusch, April 13, 2015.

Options-Based Expectations of Future Policy Rates, September 29, 2014.

Financial Market Outlook for Inflation, with Jens Christensen, May 12, 2014.

Expectations of Monetary Policy Liftoff, with Glenn Rudebusch, November 18, 2013.

What Caused the Decline in Long-term Yields?, with Glenn Rudebusch, July 8, 2013.

Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Uncertainty, December 24, 2012.

Fed Asset Buying and Private Borrowing Rates, May 21, 2012.

Signals from Unconventional Monetary Policy, with Glenn Rudebusch, November 21, 2011.

What Moves the Interest Rate Term Structure?, November 7, 2011.