New Economic Letter: A Conundrum in the Bond Market?

Why have long-term interest rates been falling throughout much of 2017, while the Federal Reserve has been normalizing monetary policy? At first sight, the combination of rising short rates and falling long rates seems puzzling, and even vaguely reminiscent of the famous Greenspan conundrum. But this time around, there are some good reasons that explain the flattening of the yield curve, which I discuss in my most recent Economic Letter.

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Michael D. Bauer
Financial Economist

My research areas are financial economics, monetary economics and time series econometrics.